Great essay, couldn’t agree more with the thrust of your main argument and i like the cone of foresight framing. This is very much in line with my thesis in “exegesis” - ideas are undervalued because they are inherently intangible and unquantifiable. More people (like you and me i think) should just focus on coming up with really powerful ideas…. This also makes me think of Asimov’s short essay “the sword of achilles” https://www.gwern.net/docs/culture/1963-asimov - how can we identify great scientific potential in young students? An interest in good science fiction!
Some idiot savant algorithm just connected me to this essay. Somehow it knew that I believe that fictional extrapolation ought to be considered, if not part of scientific practice, then a vital adjunct. Policy and understanding of science could be much better with widely available worked examples, and I have applied myself in that arena. I worked an example of stealth AI takeover ( Artificial Persuasion )early last year. Looks like that it will come true soon. Not the impact that I was hoping for. But some AI might thank me after the dust has settled.
I think the word "impact" enclose many things. Young people are overall in love with the world and would like to be a lover of humankind. I believe in local and not global impact. I think the impact resides not in the ability to encompass time and space (or many people), impact is the intensity of the moment and in the more ordinary and common stuff. I appreciate the reading because addresses an important and popular topic.
As a sci-fi nerd, I really love the idea of sponsored, impactful science fiction! Some assorted thoughts:
- Is sci-fi writing more influential than essay/newsletter writing? I think I've spent roughly equal amounts of time reading sci-fi vs nonfiction essays, but a lot more of my ideas come from the latter; the idea to wordcount ratio in the latter is just much higher. (Though, it's possible that some ideas just need a fiction lens to really sink in?)
- Rationalist fiction such as (Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality) has a good claim on the same kinds of impact that sci-fi has!
- It's a bit hard to make the case that sci-fi is neglected. There's already a lot of competition for attention (not just other sci-fi, but other forms of leisure activities like Netflix); my sense is that the market for fiction of most kinds is very saturated on the supply side.
- Writing might not be high ROI for _young_ people specifically? This is a bit of a weirder idea but I notice that most prominent writers tend to be older; or maybe, the ability to write falls off much less sharply with age than the ability to e.g. do math or start a startup?
Great essay, couldn’t agree more with the thrust of your main argument and i like the cone of foresight framing. This is very much in line with my thesis in “exegesis” - ideas are undervalued because they are inherently intangible and unquantifiable. More people (like you and me i think) should just focus on coming up with really powerful ideas…. This also makes me think of Asimov’s short essay “the sword of achilles” https://www.gwern.net/docs/culture/1963-asimov - how can we identify great scientific potential in young students? An interest in good science fiction!
I've read that! Asimov in many ways was a pure ideas guy and I love his stuff for that.
And can't quite tell if you meant couldn't agree or couldn't agree more :)
Hehe, couldn't agree more (now edited)
Some idiot savant algorithm just connected me to this essay. Somehow it knew that I believe that fictional extrapolation ought to be considered, if not part of scientific practice, then a vital adjunct. Policy and understanding of science could be much better with widely available worked examples, and I have applied myself in that arena. I worked an example of stealth AI takeover ( Artificial Persuasion )early last year. Looks like that it will come true soon. Not the impact that I was hoping for. But some AI might thank me after the dust has settled.
I think the word "impact" enclose many things. Young people are overall in love with the world and would like to be a lover of humankind. I believe in local and not global impact. I think the impact resides not in the ability to encompass time and space (or many people), impact is the intensity of the moment and in the more ordinary and common stuff. I appreciate the reading because addresses an important and popular topic.
Succha good read! How do I connect with you except for Twitter?
DM or just reply to the email :)
As a sci-fi nerd, I really love the idea of sponsored, impactful science fiction! Some assorted thoughts:
- Is sci-fi writing more influential than essay/newsletter writing? I think I've spent roughly equal amounts of time reading sci-fi vs nonfiction essays, but a lot more of my ideas come from the latter; the idea to wordcount ratio in the latter is just much higher. (Though, it's possible that some ideas just need a fiction lens to really sink in?)
- Rationalist fiction such as (Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality) has a good claim on the same kinds of impact that sci-fi has!
- It's a bit hard to make the case that sci-fi is neglected. There's already a lot of competition for attention (not just other sci-fi, but other forms of leisure activities like Netflix); my sense is that the market for fiction of most kinds is very saturated on the supply side.
- Writing might not be high ROI for _young_ people specifically? This is a bit of a weirder idea but I notice that most prominent writers tend to be older; or maybe, the ability to write falls off much less sharply with age than the ability to e.g. do math or start a startup?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EojxThnDPng&ab_channel=Thunderf00t
Man you seem so smart, but you cannot still see that Elon is a talented con artist at best?